How do you know if you can trust an expert?

While this seems to be about home repairs, it's actually about trusting experts so bear with me while I set the ground work.

We're in the process of getting a new furnace or at least see if we can find a way to stop replacing the igniter every 9 months. We had a fantastic system that worked really well for the first 14 years or so of home ownership. It was a new type of boiler system that provided practically endless supplies of hot water and fairly cheap heat.

Having a garage that we couldn't use unless we bought mini-Coopers or motorcycles, I converted the first garage bay into an office. The contractor insisted that the wall he was installing would provide adequate room to service the furnace and hot water heater/boiler. When I questioned this, the head of the company came out, made a few tweaks to the plan, and said that he was sure it would be sufficient. I call this "Contractor Lie #1". There may have been adequate room before drywall, but after drywall, I can barely get the filter out to clean it ,and I think even Twiggy would have difficulty actually looking at any of the furnace parts, much less repairing them. The hot water heater/boiler access isn't too bad but it is far from sufficient.

When the boiler part died, the company that had originally installed it no longer supported the system and I could find nobody else who had a clue. This being a boiler, I opted to try calling plumbers instead of heating contractors. Maybe this was my first mistake.

A plumber came out and replaced the unit. He didn't bother to tell us that we were getting a hot water heater (max temp. 160 degrees F) rather than a boiler (max temp. 200 degrees F). I consider this "Contractor Lie #2.  It became quite clear that the job was well beyond the scope of this guy's experience so after his company's third attempt to fix everything, I called a different company. They fixed the pipes and everything was great.

For a year or so.

Then temperatures went unseasonably cold for Seattle, and the igniter died. Unusual? yes. Out of warranty? Of course. I researched the water heater on the Internet and couldn't find any indication that there was a history of igniter problems so we replaced the igniter.  Everything worked great.

For about 9 months.

Once again, cold temperatures brought a dead igniter. Still nothing on the Internet that the igniters were bad or that the hot water heater had problems but it was clear that something was wrong. Once again, the company ordered an igniter and after 3 very cold days, it was installed. They called the manufacturer to confirm there were no service bulletins. It was suggested to look at airflow which we did. At this point, we discovered that the intake and outflow air were backwards on the roof. The intake should be higher so it doesn't draw in air from the outflow. We debated methods to fix it but the manufacturer said that they doubted it was an issue. This may have been Contractor Lie #3. Most likely, our first igniter was simply a bad one. Once again, out of warranty but the plumbing company gave us a discount on installation because even they decided this was unacceptable. Once again, everything seem to be just great.

Until about 9 months later.

I am once again listening as this poor hot water heater attempts to heat the water enough to warm the house.  I've now turned off the recirculating pump that makes hot water appear in only 10-15 seconds from most sinks. I've turned the furnace down to a perky 60 degrees to minimize the amount of work it needs to do.  I've done what I can to help it limp along so we have time to figure out what to do.

The question is: do we replace the whole thing or do we fix it once again. How can we make such a decision when I can't necessarily trust the expert I've hired?

This has made me think about all the various experts I depend on. I have various experts digest the congressional bills so that I don't have to read all 1500+ pages. I rely on an expert to tell me what programs have viruses on my computer. Car repairs. Horse trainers. Vets. Doctors. Dentists. Meteorologists. Medications and supplements. The list goes on.

Contractor Lie #1: Are they knowledgeable or giving me a snow job?
If I raise a concern, how can I trust that these experts actually know what they are talking about? My son is an amazing student who really does know a lot of different things. However, he is the most amazing bulls*#&ter that you'd ever have the pleasure of knowing. Unless you yourself are knowledgeable about a topic, you have no way of knowing that you've veered off into BS-land. I'm not sure I could trust him in a study group where everyone is responsible for reporting on their part of the assignment. While I know that he would take the responsibility very seriously, I wouldn't have the skills to know what part of his report he was BSing and what was actually in the assignment. He is a classic case of the better someone's speaking and social skills, the more they create an innate sense of trustworthiness.

In my experience, some of the best blue collar experts couldn't spell like a first grader and couldn't speak very well either but those are also the hallmarks of some of the worst blue collar contractors. As our experts get more educated to perform their job, their speaking skills somewhat naturally improve which means their ability snow me becomes higher.  How much do you know about the real reasons your doctor wants you to take some medication or have some test done?

In short, how do I know that my hired expert is actually an expert in what I need?

Contractor Lie #2: The super-secret lingo
If I ask for a boiler, how do I know that I'm getting a boiler and not a hot water heater? I did research and the only items listed as "boilers" were units designed for huge office buildings or apartment complexes rather than a single family home. I thought I was doing the right thing and researching my options before I made a large expenditure. How was I supposed to know the difference between a hot water heater and a boiler if the experts (in this case the contractor and the manufacturer websites) don't agree on the lingo?

This is especially problematic in computers, and it's not just the difference between PCs and Macs. Think of all the different ways people refer to the button on the bottom left corner of  your Windows machine. Some people call it the "pearl", some call it the "start button", and some people call it the "round flag". There are probably other names for it that I don't know. Some people use their term because that's what it was called when they learned about it. Some people use their term because it's the current one. Some people use their term because it's just what they use. None of this is bad until you have a problem and you are off trying to find a solution. If you've been told that that thing is called the "pearl", you'll be in great shape searching on Microsoft's site but it won't work on too many other help sites. Worse, if you don't know that people use different terms for it, you don't know how to search for it or, when you do find help, you spend an hour trying to find the "round flag".

If I don't speak the same language as my expert, it is much easier for me to view them as an expert. Heck, isn't that a big part of what the reformation was all about? People getting tired of viewing their Latin-speaking parish priest as the expert on God and decided that if God was all-powerful, he could understand their local language.

Doctors use this all the time. A patient doesn't want to hear "I don't know what it is" so doctors call it something so that you'll have faith in whatever treatment the doctor proscribes. Since your faith that a treatment will work is apparently a huge component in the treatment actually working, this sounds like a great idea. It probably is a good idea most of the time but how do I, as a patient, know when it isn't a good idea? I've now known enough people with cancer to know that doctors don't agree on what best treatment is but for many types of cancer are just going with whatever they've tried in the past or was in the latest magazine.

We treat some experts as gods and don't ever seem to question their thinking or their conclusions. Think about talk radio or newspapers. How often do you go off and research what they say? There's an expectation for some experts that they are factual and unbiased but more and more we seem to be discovering that even people like doctors are quite biased.

Contractor Lie #3: Good advice or avoiding a lawsuit? Good advice or money?
How do I know that the advice I'm getting is what the expert feels is the right answer rather than the answer with the least likelihood of getting him in trouble? Similarly, how do I know my hired expert is telling be the best practice rather than getting money for the next vacation?

For the most part, people got a long just fine without all the technology. When a doctor suggests that I need a test, I can followup with something like "how would the outcome of the test change the treatment?" Not only does this help me understand the purpose of the test, but it keeps me from getting tests that won't change the outcome because sometimes the treatment is for the symptoms not necessarily their cause. That's not saying that all tests are bad but I do think we do many things out of a fear that something will go horribly wrong and we won't be able to say "I did everything I could think of!" Certainly malpractice insurance sells the fear of that to doctors and our attitudes towards medicine often reinforce that "do everything you need" to confirm what you already believe.

Doctors aren't the only ones. Another one is the "get your septic pumped every 3-5 years otherwise your drain fields will be worthless" ploy. Not only do many people get their systems pumped regularly but some companies make a bang up business selling bacteria for your septic. Maybe some day, someone can explain to me why the septic guy insists that I need some different filter every time he comes?

Personally, I think that falls into the corollary of this lie which is "how do I know that what's being recommended is the best for my situation and not for the expert's wallet?" This is one of many reasons Car Talk is so loved. Tom and Ray tell what they think the car needs so that the callers can walk into a mechanic's business with some degree of control over excess repairs.

My daughter's computer died after barely 18 months of use. Having many computers in the household, some over 15 years old, this was abnormal. In calling tech support and spending many hours on the phone with some lovely Indian woman, we determined that the motherboard was fried. I'd said that about 20 minutes into the conversation but the scripts required that I dink around another few hours before the tech could agree. So pay $400 for a new motherboard or $600 for a new computer? I suspect that there is some very small part on the motherboard that isn't working but by pricing the motherboard so high, the company is strongly encouraging people to buy a new computer.

Clearly we can't trust all mortgage brokers or banks but those used to be some of the most trustworthy professions. How about your will? How do you know that what your lawyer has done will accomplish what you want? As people get older and need power of attorneys, death with dignity documents or living wills, how do you trust that the experts you've hired will do what you want? What happens when your expert doctors conflict with your expert lawyers over your care? With all the information coming at us and the increased specialization many of us are making in our day-to-day knowledge, reliance on experts is important but how do you know whom to trust?